1. I do not regard myself as an expert statistician. When I wish to obtain some statistical result, I consult my textbooks. Neither do I rate myself as extremely facile with probability calculations, though I sometimes enjoy challenging questions.
2. At times we will use the word "probability" as short for "probabilistic thinking."
3. That is not to say that topologies can have no affect on probability calculations. For example, topologies associated with general relativity certainly may be relevant in probability calculations or are not relevant when it comes to such concepts as the four-dimensional spacetime block.
4. A term attributed to the 19th century logician and philosopher C.S. Peirce.
5. The convenient word "gist" has an echo of some noumenal realm, as it stems from the word "geist," as in "spirit" or "ghost."
6. Logical Foundations of Probability by Rudolph Carnap (University of Chicago, 1950).
7. From the 2006 introduction to The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference by Ian Hacking (Cambridge, 1975, 2006).
8. Jan von Plato in The Probability Revolution vol 2: ideas in the sciences; Kruger, Gigerenzer, and Morgan, editors (MIT Press, 1987).
9. Calculated Risks: How to know when numbers deceive you by Gerd Gigerenzer (Simon and Schuster, 2002).
10. Truth and Probability (1926) by Frank P. Ramsey, appearing in The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays.
11. The Logic of Scientific Discovery by Karl Popper. Published as Logik der Forschung in 1935; English version published by Hutchinson in 1959.
Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001.
13. The Philosophy of Mathematics and Science by Hermann Weyl (Princeton University Press, 1949, 2009).
14. A Treatise on Probability by J.M. Keynes (Macmillan, 1921).
15. The "Particles" of Modern Physics by J.D. Stranathan (Blakiston, 1942).
15a. A Treatise on Probability by J.M. Keynes (Macmillan, 1921).
16. Treatise, Keynes.
17. Treatise, Keynes.
18. Treatise, Keynes.
19. Grundbegriffe der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (in German) by Andrey Kolmogorov (Julius Springer, 1933). Foundations of the Theory of Probability (in English) was published by Chelsea Publishing Co. in 1950.
20. Popper's propensity theory is discussed in his Postscript to The Logic of Scientific Discovery, which was published in three volumes as:
a. Realism and the Aim of Science, Postscript Volume I, Routledge, 1985. Hutchinson, 1983.21. Symmetry by Hermann Weyl (Princeton, 1952).
b. The Open Universe, Postscript Volume II Routledge, 1988. Hutchinson, 1982.
c. Quantum Theory and the Schism in Physics, Postscript Volume III, Routledge, 1989. Hutchinson, 1982.
21a. Treatise, Keynes.
22. Theory of Probability by Harold Jeffreys (Oxford/Clarendon Third edition 1961; originally published in 1939)
23. Gamma: Exploring Euler's Constant by Julian Havil (Princeton, 2003).
24. Interpreting Probability: controversies and developments of the early 20th century by David Howie (Cambridge 2002).
25. The Logic of Scientific Discovery by Karl Popper. Published as Logik der Forschung in 1935; English version published by Hutchinson in 1959.
26. Popper's propensity theory is discussed in his Postscript to The Logic of Scientific Discovery, which was published in three volumes as:
a. Realism and the Aim of Science, Postscript Volume I, Routledge, 1985. Hutchinson, 1983.27. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don't by Nate Silver (Penguin 2012).
b. The Open Universe, Postscript Volume II Routledge, 1988. Hutchinson, 1982.
c. Quantum Theory and the Schism in Physics, Postscript Volume III, Routledge, 1989. Hutchinson, 1982.
In his book, Silver passively accepts the official yarn about the events of 9/11, and makes an egregious error in the logic behind his statistical discussion of terrorist acts.
Amazing blunder drowns out 'Signal'
http://conantcensorshipissue.blogspot.com/2013/04/amazing-blunder-drowns-out-signal-on.html
For a kinder review, here is
John Allen Paulos on Silver's book
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-signal-and-the-noise-why-so-many-predictions-fail--but-some-dont-by-nate-silver/2012/11/09/620bf2d0-0671-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_story.html
28. A Treatise on Probability by J.M. Keynes (Macmillan, 1921).
29. Treatise, Keynes.
30. Calculated Risks: How to know when numbers deceive you by
Gerd Gigerenzer (Simon and Schuster 2002).
31. The Principles of Science (Vol I) by William Stanley Jevons (Routledge/Thoemmes Press, 1996 reprint of 1874 ms).
32. The Grammar of Science by Karl Pearson (Meridian 1957 reprint of 1911 revised edition).
32aa. Science and Information Theory, Second Edition, by Leon Brillouin (Dover 2013 reprint of Academic Press 1962 edition; first edition, 1956).
32a. A New Kind of Science by Stephen Wolfram (wolfram Media, 2002).
33. Charles M. Grinstead and Laurie J. Snell Introduction to Probability, Second Edition (American Mathematical Society 1997).
34. The Logic of Scientific Discovery by Karl Popper.
35.Probability by Mark Kac in "The Mathematical Sciences -- A collection of essays" (MIT 1969). The essay appeared originally in Scientific American, Vol. 211, No. 3, 1964.
35a. A Treatise on Probability by J.M. Keynes (Macmillan, 1921).
36. E.T. Jaynes: Papers on probability, statistics and statistical physics, R.D. Rosenkrantz editor (D. Reidel 1983).
37. The Principles of Science (Vol I) by William Stanley Jevons (Routledge/Thoemmes Press, 1996 reprint of 1874 ms).
38. The Grammar of Science by Karl Pearson (Meridian 1957 reprint of 1911 revised edition).
39. The Logic of Scientific Discovery by Karl Popper. Published as Logik der Forschung in 1935; English version published by Hutchinson in 1959.
40. Vovk's paper, "Kolmogorov complexity conception of probability," appears in Probability Theory, Philosophy, Recent History and Relations to Science edited by Vincent F. Hendricks, Stig Andur Pedersen, Klaus Frovin Jorgensen
41. Grammar, Pearson.
42. Principles of Science, Jevons.
43. Quantum Theory and the Schism in Physics (Postscript Volume III) by Karl Popper (Routledge, 1989. Hutchinson, 1982).
44. The Meaning of Relativity (fifth edition) by Albert Einstein (Princeton, 1956).
44a. Symmetry by Hermann Weyl (Princeton, 1952).
45. New Foundations of Quantum Mechanics by Alfred Landé (Cambridge University Press, 1965). Cited by Popper in Quantum Theory and the Schism in Physics (Postscript to the Logic of Scientific Discovery, Volume III; Routledge, 1989. Hutchinson, 1982).
46. Popper's evolving view on probability shows up in material added to the English language edition of Logic.
The Logic of Scientific Discovery by Karl Popper. Published as Logik der Forschung in 1935; English version published by Hutchinson in 1959.
47. The Emperor's New Mind: Concerning Computers, Minds, and the Laws of Physics by Roger Penrose, (Reed Business Information Inc.).
48. Logic, Popper.
50. The Open Universe (Postscript to the Logic of Scientific Discovery, Volume II) by Karl Popper (Routledge, 1988. Hutchinson, 1982).
51. The Essence of Chaos by Edward N. Lorenz (University of Washington, 1996).
52. A previous Conant discussion on entropy
paulpages.blogspot.com/2013/10/drunk-and-disorderly-rise-and-fall-of.html
53aa. Bruce Hood is director of Bristol Cognitive Development Centre, University of Bristol, and author of The Self Illusion: how the social brain creates identity (Oxford, 2012).
54. Jan von Plato in The Probability Revolution vol 2: ideas in the sciences. Kruger, Gigerenzer, and Morgan, editors (MIT Press 1987).
54a. Referenced in a Wikipedia account and in a number of other internet pages.
55. E.T. Jaynes: Papers on probability, statistics and statistical physics, R.D. Rosenkrantz editor (D. Reidel 1983).
55aa. Science and Information Theory, Second Edition, by Leon Brillouin (Dover 2013 reprint of Academic Press 1962 edition; first edition, 1956).
56. Jaynes, Papers
56a. See Gravitation by Charles W. Misner, Kip S. Thorne and John Archibald Wheeler (W.H. Freeman, 1970, 1971). The exhaustive tome on general relativity is sometimes known as "the phone book."
56bb. Science and Information Theory.Brillouin.
56b. Science and Information Theory, Brillouin.
56c. This set of noise definitions was in part taken from Internetworking: A Guide to Network Communications by Mark A. Miller (M&T Books, 1991).
57. Science and Information, Brillouin.
58. Cycles of Time: An extraordinary new view of the universe by Roger Penrose (The Bodley Head, 2010).
59. Conflict in the Cosmos: Fred Hoyle's life in science by Simon Mitton (Joseph Henry Press, 2005).
60. Chaos Theory Tamed by Garnett P. Williams (Joseph Henry Press, 1997).
61. Alternative names for K-S entropy, given by Williams, are source entropy, measure-theoretic entropy, metric-invariant entropy and metric entropy.
61a. Symmetry by Hermann Weyl (Princeton, 1952).
61b. Time Travel in Einstein's Universe by J. Richard Gott III (Houghton Mifflin, 2001).
62. Kurt Goedel in Albert Einstein: Philosopher-Scientist, edited by Paul Arthur Schilpp (Library of Living Philosophers, 1949)
63. Cycles of Time: An extraordinary new view of the universe by Roger Penrose (The Bodley Head, 2010).
64. The Anthropic Cosmological Principle by John D. Barrow and Frank J. Tipler (Oxford, 1988).
65. Wheeler quoted in The Undivided Universe: An Ontological Interpretation of Quantum Theory by David Bohm, Basil James Hiley (Routledge, Chapman & Hall, Incorporated, 1993). The quotation is from Wheeler in Mathematical Foundations of Quantum Mechanics, A.R. Marlow, editor (Academic Press, 1978).
66. Undivided Universe, Bohm.
67. Bohm (see above) is referring to The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics by B.S. DeWitt and N. Graham (Princeton University Press 1973).
68. Undivided Universe, Bohm.
69. Gravitation by Charles W. Misener, Kip S. Thorne and John Archibald Wheeler (W.H. Freeman, 1970, 1971).
70. Black Holes and Wormholes by Kip Thorne (W.W. Norton, 1994).
71. The Open Universe (Postscript Volume II) by Karl Popper (Routledge, 1988. Hutchinson, 1982).
72. New Foundations of Quantum Mechanics by Alfred Landé (Cambridge University Press, 1965). Cited by Popper in Schism.
73. Logical Foundations of Probability by Rudolph Carnap (University of Chicago, 1950).
74. Physics and Philosophy by James Jeans (Cambridge, Macmillan, 1943).
75. Quantum Theory and the Schism in Physics (Postscript Volume III) by Karl Popper (Routledge, 1989. Hutchinson, 1982).
76. The New Background of Science by James Jeans (Cambridge, 1933, 1934).
77. B. Alan Wallace, a Buddhist scholar, tackles the disconnect between the scientific method and consciousness in this video from the year 2000.
B. Alan Wallace on science and consciousness
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0IotYndKfg
77aa. Space, Time and Gravitation: An Outline of the General Relativity Theory by Athur Eddington (Cambridge 1920, Harper and Row reprint, 1959).
77a. Taken from excerpts of the scientist's writings found in Quantum Questions: Mystical Writings of the World's Great Physicists, edited by Ken Wilbur (Shambhala Publications, 1984). Wilbur says the book's intent is not to marshal scientific backing for a New Age agenda.
77bb. From "Autobiographical Notes" appearing in Albert Einstein: Philosopher-Scientist, Paul Arthur Schilpp, editor (Library of Living Philosophers 1949).
77xa. Science and Information Theory, Second Edition, by Leon Brillouin (Dover 2013 reprint of Academic Press 1962 edition; first edition, 1956).
77b. The Meaning of Relativity by Albert Einstein (fifth edition, Princeton, 1956).
78. The Self Illusion: how the social brain creates identity by Bruce Hood (Oxford, 2012).
79. The "Particles" of Modern Physics by J.D. Stranathan (Blakison, 1942).
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